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Original: 9/22/2008 4:45 AM
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Monday, September 22, 2008

between 1965 and 1982

 when adjusted for inflation, the DOW dropped about 70%. The markets don't always go up, they can go down for decades. It's not unthinkable, in fact really likely that real estate can drop 70% over the next 18 years as well.
 Posted 9/22/2008 4:45 AM - 3576 Views - 20 eProps - 16 comments

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16 Comments

Visit slaustin62's Xanga Site!
Think we'll hang out in our "paid for" house and drive my 9 year old Acura for awhile!
Posted 9/22/2008 7:26 AM by slaustin62 - recommend - reply

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The Dow Industrials is one of the worst indicators to use for overall market performance. It is price-weighted and only includes thirty companies that can be changed out at anytime. The Dow Jones Wilshire index of 5000 securities may be a better index because it is weighted based on market cap and is intended to measure the performance of all publicly traded companies including REITs and limited partnerships.

Posted 9/22/2008 7:45 AM by qnetx - recommend - reply

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I've got a eight year old Toyota and my house is nothing to be envious of. I've been in cash in my retirement accounts since late March and I'm probably going to put 5-10% into gold. Anyone who buys into the idea that markets go up for ever is an assclown. In my opinion, Gary is going to be right with his prognostication sooner or later. I do not think the US is going to 3rd world country status. Many investors didn't come back to the market after the NASDAQ tech bubble when the index went from roughly 5000 to 1000. An 80% drop in value is a collapse. Wasn't the Sarbanes Oxley Act supposed to stop companies from being so blatently fraudulous?
Posted 9/22/2008 10:08 AM by sp500700 - recommend - reply

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well thank god it is 2008 and we didn't turn into a third world country during that time.
Posted 9/22/2008 11:02 AM by spencer402 - recommend - reply

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Hmm, any tips on how to live in your car and not get in trouble with the authorities?

=Matt=
Posted 9/22/2008 5:30 PM by CameraTalk - recommend - reply

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If you're John McCain, you just alternate between the 13 cars that you own.
Posted 9/22/2008 6:03 PM by fjblau - recommend - reply

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@fjblau - HA!

Posted 9/22/2008 6:06 PM by jacksonwholephoto - recommend - reply

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@fjblau - CameraTalk just slowed pitched that softball to you.

Posted 9/22/2008 6:06 PM by jacksonwholephoto - recommend - reply

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The current administration is pulling out all the stops. Oil up $25 today, bailout package by the weeks end, and hyperinflation on the horizon.

Just e-mailed my state senators, but this BS bailout bill will pass anyway. Rupublicans=Socialists.

OBAMA in 08

Nice article I pulled from the Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog

"There is a term in political philosophy to describe a government takeover of a critical industry: That term is socialism. The government is telling us that capital and credit markets cannot, for several reasons, solve the current crisis on their own—only the federal government and its massive taxpayer base have the authority and the resources to solve it. That is state socialism: the philosophy preached by the founders of the Second International, by the radical wing of the American labor movement, through the formation of the Soviet Union and its satellites, and now by Henry Paulson.

Like the ownership society, socialism is also a compelling vision; just look at the logic of the Paulson-Bernanke plan. There are several financial institutions that have brought themselves nearly to extinction by acquiring a cornucopia of toxic assets, ultimately related to mortgages. Those assets might be worth what the banks thought they were worth, and they might be worth nothing; it's hard to know because the market for them in many instances has disappeared

http://tbm.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2008/09/21/henry-paulson-socialist

Posted 9/22/2008 7:11 PM by sp500700 - recommend - reply

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Tonight, I listened to a really good interview on the Bush bailout plan and why it is wrong. NPR interviewed the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, a Republican, who is in totally disagreement with the Bush administration on this plan. There was some good insight regarding the motivation behind it and just how intertwined the players are. Read the transcript for yourself at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94900671

Posted 9/22/2008 7:45 PM by qnetx - recommend - reply

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I heard that too...and found myself agreeing with Newt...
Posted 9/22/2008 8:44 PM by jsandifer - recommend - reply

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# Story Highlights

# Nearly half of those polled blame Republicans for current financial crisis
# Obama leading McCain 51-46 percent, according to CNN poll out Monday
# Majority of respondents view Obama as better on economic issues

(cnn.com)
Posted 9/22/2008 10:59 PM by fjblau - recommend - reply

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Everything usually goes down in price. Why is the price of decent housing exempt? Housing prices have been increasingly and astoundingly high. During WWII, decent used homes, even two story brick, were available for under $4000-$5000. I am seeing old wood frame houses from that same era priced in the $100,000 range. Aren't houses selling like crazy now on the west coast? The price got competitive, the product sales went up. What's the question? - Ed
Posted 9/23/2008 5:15 AM by edgerson - recommend - reply

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You are forgetting dividends (similar to interest). That is a material component of total return.

In 1965, the DOW was about 900, and in 1982, it closed at 1,047

Compare that to a bond that bought for $1,000 in 1965 that matured in 1982 for $1,000.

Which is better? You can't answer that until you know what dividends were paid on the DOW stocks vs. what is the interest rate on the bond.

In order to compare returns to inflation, you will need to know the Total Return on the DOW, which includes dividends.

Posted 9/23/2008 7:56 AM by iakot - recommend - reply

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@slaustin62 - 

Lucky you!! And that sounds like a good idea. And Acuras will last you forever! I sold my 90 Legend in 2002 with over 220k miles on it. And it is still going with its new owner with over 350k on it now.

But unfortunately there aren't many people in your same situation. You will be fine. But what about the rest of us?
I do believe that the housing market is going to take more of a dip. House prices here in california have been way over inflated!! This was a much needed correction that can be seen as good and bad. Good for those that couldn't afford a house before and bad for the ones that are now upside down in their current mortgage. It will be interesting to see how this pans out....
Posted 9/23/2008 9:42 AM by gooniac33 - recommend - reply

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@slaustin62 - 

Lucky you!! And that sounds like a good idea. And Acuras will last you forever! I sold my 90 Legend in 2002 with over 220k miles on it. And it is still going with its new owner with over 350k on it now.

But unfortunately there aren't many people in your same situation. You will be fine. But what about the rest of us?
I do believe that the housing market is going to take more of a dip. House prices here in california have been way over inflated!! This was a much needed correction that can be seen as good and bad. Good for those that couldn't afford a house before and bad for the ones that are now upside down in their current mortgage. It will be interesting to see how this pans out....
Posted 9/23/2008 9:42 AM by gooniac33 - recommend - reply


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