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Original: 9/18/2007 5:10 PM
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

 "FORECASTING IS SIMPLY A PROJECTION OF HOW IMBALANCES WILL RESOLVE"

What an awesome quote.  THIS BOOK IS AMAZING.  I really couldn't understand why interest rates had been so low for such a long time, and the reason is the industrialization of formerly third world countries.  Countries like China and India have extremely high rates of savings, and all of this money has to go onto the open market trying to find borrowers.

Remember, interest rates are the market rates for the cost of "renting" money.  If there's a lot of it going around, it's cheap to rent.  If it is scarce (just like in today's liquidity crunch) then the costs will rise due to demand.  It's not about the fed keeping a lid on rates (the fed can do this, at the risk of inflation) - it's about market forces of supply and demand.

I am glued to this book.  It is so completely obvious what is coming in the economy - very high interest rates and a return to high inflation.  With the U.S. Government at a record deficit, renting money is all about supply and demand.  As of June 2007, the U.S. federal debt was nearly 9 trillion dollars, or $47,000 per adult in the U.S.

Those of you who frequent this blog will recall that I said that the shit was going to hit the fan around July of this year with regards to Real Estate, and many of you thought I was extreme.  You'll also recall that I said that real estate was going to be about 1/3 today's levels, and I think it's going to be that but even worse, this time prices will not spring up like they have in the past.  Therefore, the typical L.A. house that was around $600 grand will hit around $200 grand and stay there for a lifetime. 

I'm going through his personal history forecasting steel supplies, and it's mesmerizing.  I'm not sure that each and every one of you would find this book exciting, because I'm completely fascinated by economic forecasting - moreover, I'm fascinated by how incredibly naive people can be (in the face of obvious trends) in favor of optimism.

CLICK HERE TO BUY IT ON AMAZON!
 Posted 9/18/2007 5:10 PM - 1200 Views - 8 eProps - 8 comments

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Visit bluesky93's Xanga Site!
That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -
Lenny Bruce is not afraid.
Posted 9/18/2007 8:09 PM by bluesky93 Xanga True Member - recommend - reply

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Gary, i really do like you but how completly idiotic for you to say that a home in L.A. will stay at a certain price forever. Everything cycles, everything! There is nothing new under the sun, we have been there before and we will, i'm certain be there again. i just so happen to remember what started the economic boom to begin with, um, Bill Gates, Ronald Regan.. Americans can be smart but at the same time so darn stupid. I actually blame the microwave oven for this whole mess! It created the "I want it now generation". FYI. My very dear freind who bought her home next to me about 3 1/2 years ago just sold it for what she paid. Not too shabby in a what did you call it "1/3 todays levels" market.

Oh i guess the people stuck with the $600k house that is only worth $200k could always sell it and have one hell of a right off!..theres always a bright side..lol

People should learn to live within their means and stop being so darn greedy!

And 1 more thing...Greenspan is an idiot and a liar! He manipulated the US market for a long time, did you know that the "fed" isnt even run by america? and yet they determine our interest rates..hmm..A much better read is by Donald Trump "Why We Want You to be Rich" ck it out..

Posted 9/18/2007 9:57 PM by sandyanton Xanga Lifetime Member - recommend - reply

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Here is a long but very informative exerpt about greenspan and the fed, take the time read it. Every American should!

The first misconception that most people have is that the Federal Reserve Bank is a branch of the US government. IT IS NOT. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK IS A PRIVATE COMPANY. Most people believe it is as American as the Constitution. THE FACT IS THE CONSTITUTION FORBIDS IT'S EXISTENCE. Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution states that Congress shall have the power to create money and regulate the value thereof, NOT A BUNCH OF INTERNATIONAL BANKERS! Today the FED controls and profits by printing WORTHLESS PAPER, called money, through the Treasury, regulating its value, AND THE BIGGEST OUTRAGE OF ALL, COLLECTING INTEREST ON IT! (THE SO-CALLED NATIONAL DEBT). The FED began with approximately 300 people or banks that became owners, stockholders purchasing stock at $100 per share - the stock is not publicly traded) in the Federal Reserve Banking System. They make up an international banking cartel of wealth beyond comparison. The FED banking system collects billions of dollars in interest annually and distributes the profits to its shareholders. The Congress illegally gave the FED the right to print money through the Treasury at no interest to the FED.

The FED creates money from nothing, and loans it back to us through banks, and charges interest on our currency. The FED also buys Government debt with money printed on a printing press and charges U.S. taxpayers interest. Many Congressmen and Presidents say this is fraud. Who actually owns the Federal Reserve Central Banks? The ownership of the 12 Central banks, a very well kept secret, has been revealed: 1. Rothschild Bank of London 2. Warburg Bank of Hamburg 3. Rothschild Bank of Berlin 4. Lehman Brothers of New York 5. Lazard Brothers of Paris 6. Kuhn Loeb Bank of New York 7. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy 8. Goldman, Sachs of New York 9. Warburg Bank of Amsterdam 10. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York.

These bankers are connected to London Banking Houses which ultimately control the FED. When England lost the Revolutionary War with America where our forefathers were fighting their own government, they planned to control us by controlling our banking system, the printing of our money, and our debt. The individuals listed below owned banks which in turn owned shares in the FED. The banks listed below have significant control over the New York FED District, which controls the other 11 FED Districts. These banks also are partly foreign owned and control the New York FED District Bank: First National Bank of New York, James Stillman National City Bank, New York, Mary W. Harnman, National Bank of Commerce, New York, A.D. Jiullard Hanover, National Bank, New York, Jacob Schiff, Chase National Bank, New York, Thomas F. Ryan, Paul Warburg, William Rockefeller, Levi P. Morton, M.T. Pyne, George F. Baker, Percy Pyne, Mrs. G.F. St. George, J.W. Sterling, Katherine St. George, H.P. Davidson, J.P. Morgan (Equitable Life/Mutual Life), Edith Brevour, T. Baker.

How did it happen? After previous attempts to push the Federal Reserve Act through Congress, a group of bankers funded and staffed Woodrow Wilson's campaign for President. He had committed to sign this act. In 1913, a Senator, Nelson Aldrich, maternal grandfather to the Rockefellers, pushed the Federal Reserve Act through Congress just before Christmas when much of Congress was on vacation. When elected, Wilson passed the FED. Later, Wilson remorsefully replied, referring to the FED, "I have unwittingly ruined my country". Now the banks financially back sympathetic candidates. Not surprisingly, most of these candidates are elected.

The bankers employ members of the Congress on weekends (nickname T&T club -out Thursday...in Tuesday with lucrative salaries. Additionally, the FED started buying up the media in the 1930's and now owns or significantly influences most of it. Presidents Lincoln, Jackson, and Kennedy tried to stop this family of bankers by printing U.S. dollars without charging the taxpayers interest. Today, if the government runs a deficit, the FED prints dollars through the U.S. Treasury, buys the debt, and the dollars are circulated into the economy. In 1992, taxpayers paid the FED banking system $286 billion in interest on debt the FED purchased by printing money virtually cost free. Forty percent of our personal federal income taxes goes to pay this interest. The FED's books are not open to the public. Congress has yet to audit it. Congressman Wright Patman was Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Banking and Currency for 40 years. For 20 of those years, he introduced legislation to repeal the Federal Reserve Banking Act of 1913. Congressman Henry Gonzales, Chairman of a banking committee, introduced legislation to repeal the Federal Reserve Banking Act of 1913 almost every year. It's always defeated, the media remains silent, and the public never learns the truth. The same bankers who own the FED control the media and give huge political contributions to sympathetic members of Congress.

THE FED FEARS THE POPULATION WILL BECOME AWARE OF THIS FRAUD AND DEMAND CHANGE. We, the People, are at fault for being passive and allowing this to continue. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, A GOVERNMENT BOARD, HAS CHEATED THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES OUT OF ENOUGH MONEY TO PAY THE NATIONAL DEBT SEVERAL TIMES OVER. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks acting together have cost this country dearly.

They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; the rich and predatory money lenders. This is an era of economic misery and for the reasons that caused that misery, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks are fully liable. Half a million dollars was spent on one part of propaganda organized by those same European bankers for the purpose of misleading public opinion in regard to the Federal Reserve Bank.

Every effort has been made by the Federal Reserve Board to conceal its power but the truth is the Federal Reserve Board has USURPED THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES. IT CONTROLS EVERYTHING HERE AND IT CONTROLS ALL OUR FOREIGN RELATIONS. IT MAKES AND BREAKS GOVERNMENTS AT WILL. No man and no body of men is more entrenched in power than the arrogant credit monopoly which operates the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. These evil-doers have robbed this country. What the Government has permitted the Federal Reserve Board to steal from the people should now be restored to the people.

Our people's money to the extent of $1,200,000,000 has within the last few months been shipped abroad to redeem Federal Reserve Notes and to pay other gambling debts of the traitorous Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. The greater part of our monetary stock has been shipped to foreigners. Why should we promise to pay the debts of foreigners to foreigners? Why should American Farmers and wage earners add millions of foreigners to the number of their dependents? Why should the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks be permitted to finance our competitors in all parts of the world? The Federal Reserve Act should be repealed and the Federal Reserve banks, having violated their charters, should be liquidated immediately. FAITHLESS GOVERNMENT OFFICERS WHO HAVE VIOLATED THEIR OATHS SHOULD BE IMPEACHED AND BROUGHT TO TRIAL.

If the media is unbiased, independent and completely thorough, why haven't they discussed the FED? Currently, half the states have at least a grass roots movement in action to abolish the FED, but there's no press coverage. In July, 1968, the House Banking Subcommittee reported that Rockefeller, through Chase Manhattan Bank, controlled 5.9% of the stock in CBS. Furthermore, the bank had gained interlocking directorates with ABC.

In 1974, Congress issued a report stating that the Chase Manhattan Bank's stake in CBS rose to 14.1% and NBC to 4.5%. The same report said that the Chase Manhattan Bank held stock in 28 broadcasting firms. After this report, the Chase Manhattan Bank obtained 6.7% of ABC, and today the percentage is most likely much greater. It only requires 5% ownership to significantly influence the media . This is only one of 300 wealthy shareholders of the FED. It is believed other FED owners have similar holdings in the media. To control the media, FED bankers call in their loans if the media disagrees with them.

Rockefeller also controls the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the sole purpose of which is to aid in stimulating greater interest in foreign affairs and a one world government. Nearly every major newscaster belongs to the Council on Foreign Relations. The Council on Foreign Relations controls many major newspapers and magazines. Additionally, major corporations owned by FED shareholders are the source of huge advertising revenues which surely would influence the media.

Every day I hear people complaining about what they don't like about our government and media, but not one of them are willing to put forth an effort to try and change it, especially when it comes to their personal lives. We are as much a slave on a personal level, as our government is to the international bankers. We keep right on using the tool they put out here to control us, credit cards, and we are imprisoned by it. We are no longer willing to save up to buy something, we have to have it right now, so the Government has made it easy to have what you want without the having to save for it, (CREDIT). Don't you think it funny that in a land with so much wealth, only 2 PERCENT of the people own their homes? (CREDIT). Do you know 60 PERCENT of Americans have at least 3 Credit cards used to it's maximum? (CREDIT). Do you know that only 1 PERCENT of the people have their car paid for? (CREDIT). To be free, you must throw away your credit cards, and NEVER buy anything that you cannot afford at the moment of purchase. We will never be a free people until we rid ourselves of the burden placed here to control us, and when we stop renting from the powers, the power will cease to exist.

I will close with Thomas Jefferson's Warning To America : "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." Written by Jefferson in a letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802).

Posted 9/18/2007 10:25 PM by sandyanton Xanga Lifetime Member - recommend - reply

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The U.S. won't cycle this time because of the emergence of India and China. Rome didn't cycle after the collapse, nor did the USSR, or Hitler's Germany. In fact, in history all empires eventually collapse under their own weight, especially when it wants to impose its idealogy on other countries. The U.S. cannot possibly maintain its competitiveness with the emergence of India and China - remember, 1/2 of the world's population earns less than $2 per day. And with all of these people being empowered by technology, a house in Lompoc, CA in no way can go back up to the $500k mark.

I hope I'm not right, but I'm sure I am.
Posted 9/18/2007 11:06 PM by garyfong1 Xanga True Member Xanga Lifetime Member - recommend - reply

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Gary, Here is the main difference between America and rome, ussr and germany.

2 things off the top of my head..first as for asia and india..they are stll struggling, however as donald trump has in his book, they are both excellent places to invest in land etc. There are more billionaires here than any other country!

then one major thing and I know we totally disagree on this but, America does have the blessing and covering of our God and His son Jesus. There are many christians here that are praying. The simple law of sowing and reaping is here, Americans give more than any other country, hence we will reap this back. Now i do however believe that Jesus will return and in order for that to happen, the collapse of America is certain as the West is not mentioned in the bible "in the final days". So if Christ is to return, then absolutly you could be correct but i just dont see it, so much in prophesy has to happen and its not..not yet!

just remember that Canadas safety, security and economy is helpless without America. If we go so will Canada!

Americans are pulling back away from china, I predicted years ago, when everything left us and went to china, that they would capitolize on our stupidity and greed and try to poison our children with lead, ahhh look at the rise of ADD and ADHD in our kids..i have kept my kids away form china made goods as much as possible. When we wake up as a country, things will bounce, You have never spent time in the deep south or in the back country with real america, this is where i am from, my roots, they, we are a different kind of people than the big city, greedy americans.

Gold is and aways will be the best way to protect your investments, now dont be silly ofcourse we diversify!

Posted 9/19/2007 5:21 AM by sandyanton Xanga Lifetime Member - recommend - reply

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The people who grinned themselves to death
Smiled so much they failed to take a breath
And even when their kids were starving
They all thought the queen was charming

Hey man...you got any more good videos of pranks you've played on Amy Nave?  We -- the fans -- come to your blog for fun...not doom and gloom.  We can get doom and gloom on the evening news. 

Okay...back to our regularly scheduled shenanigans... 

Posted 9/19/2007 7:04 AM by bluesky93 Xanga True Member - recommend - reply

Visit scottnh1970's Xanga Site!
Hey Gary, you also predicted a collapse of our lending system and recession bigger then the one in the 80's. When is this going to happen?
Posted 9/19/2007 12:31 PM by scottnh1970 - recommend - reply

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wow- very interesting read!
Posted 9/21/2007 8:40 AM by teresavigil - recommend - reply


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